At long last, the dreaded NASCAR offseason is coming to a close. And that means a lot of fans (myself included) are beginning to make speculations on what we can expect to see in the 2021 season. So today, at long last, I’ll provide some of my boldest (and probably dumbest) predictions for the new season. Before we start, here are some main topics I will give my opinions on: Playoffs, Top drivers from the offseason, overall champion, and other small stories.
I’ll get my longest prediction out of the way first and that of course is the Cup Series Playoffs. I’ll predict my 16-driver playoff field and highlight a few drivers. Here’s how I see the playoff field in no particular order:
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Kurt Busch
- Alex Bowman
- Chase Elliott
- Ryan Blaney
- Aric Almirola
- Ryan Newman
- Christopher Bell
- Joey Logano
- Brad Keselowski
- Matt DiBennedetto
- Bubba Wallace
- Tyler Reddick
So you might already be thinking that there are some big names that aren’t on this list. William Byron, Erik Jones, and Kyle Larson, just to name a few. You’ve probably also noticed some shockers slipping in like Tyler Reddick and Ryan Newman. Obviously, Larson is the biggest name not on the list. I don’t see him winning a race or running consistently. He hasn’t run a NASCAR event in almost a year, after his suspension from an incident during an iRacing event. Even with the addition of the Bristol Dirt Race, you’ll notice Christopher Bell’s name on my playoff list. I have Bell winning that race over Larson. The shockers I mentioned above (Reddick and Newman) both make it in on wins. As for Bubba? I’ll mention that later.
Now that we have my playoff field, it’s time to make my championship predictions. You’ll see the biggest names of these past few seasons like Harvick, Truex, Hamlin, Elliott, and others. But with so many dominant drivers, how can I pick one winner? Easy. Consistency. Who of these drivers have been the most consistent? Elliott, for sure, definitely Harvick, and Hamlin. Surprisingly, I’m eliminating Kyle Busch and Martin Truex, Jr. here. They had a combined two wins in 2020, and just weren’t their normal selves. Aric Almirola was the definition of consistency during the first bunch of races back from the pandemic, with a string of top fives and a longer one of top 10’s. He was consistent, however he failed to win, coming up short on numerous occasions, so he’ll be eliminated. Chase Elliott is coming off his first championship, and he seems like an automatic favorite for the title. However, just as we saw with Kyle Busch in 2020, Elliott runs the risk of having a “championship hangover”. Due to this, I don’t see Chase going back-to-back.
Kevin Harvick had one of his best seasons in 2020, but came up just short of the final round. “Happy” has a very real shot at the title in ‘21, but he’s still not my pick. My 2021 NASCAR championship winner is Denny Hamlin. Hamlin has choked away championships before, and straight up lost in 2020. The three-time Daytona 500 champ has yet to win the elusive season championship, but I think 2021 is his year. In addition to his driving duties with Gibbs, Hamlin is also debuting a new team with help from NBA legend Michael Jordan, and I think that a championship would be the icing on the cake.
Last but not least I’ll discuss some other small but notable offseason news, such as team changes and rookies. As of the time of this article, there are only two confirmed full-time rookies in the Cup series for 2021; Anthony Alfredo(Front Row) and Chase Briscoe (Stewart Haas). Briscoe is my ROTY pick as he is in better equipment and has more experience in real-life racing.
Bubba Wallace is driving for new team 23XI Racing which is joint-owned by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan. As I predicted in the playoff portion of this article, they make the playoffs. If you think about it, this car is essentially a fifth Joe Gibbs ride. Bubba outperformed his equipment at Richard Petty Motorsports last season and tacked on a lot of sponsors, so I think he has potential to do big things this season. I see him either winning one race, or running consistently enough to make it on points. However it happens, he’s making the playoffs.
My last prediction for today is about the biggest story of this offseason, the return of Kyle Larson. As we all know, Larson was well on his way to another successful season with Chip Ganassi Racing when the world shut down. Larson joined an iRacing exhibition event one night, and uttered a racial epithet during said event. He was suspended from NASCAR until his reinstatement on January 1, 2021. However, prior to his official reinstatement, it was announced that he had signed with Hendrick Motorsports for 2021. Though no sponsors have been announced, I’m willing to bet he will have a few by the end of the season. My overall prediction for Larson is he runs similar to how Jimmie Johnson ran in his final few seasons. Midpack with occasional flashes of brilliance. Larson may run well, but I don’t see him making the playoffs this year. Maybe in ‘22 or ‘23, but not this year.
Let me know how wrong I was on Twitter and be sure to tag me with your 2021 predictions!
Motor Max 