Finally, it’s time for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. 16 drivers battle for 10 weeks to determine one champion. Back for a second year, I am doing a predictions challenge with fellow racing writers Matt (TehBen.com) and Jake (TheSlowRestart), last year’s victor.
Before I get into my predictions, let’s recap the season briefly. The introduction of the new car brought forth one of the wildest regular seasons in recent memory, with 16 different winners in the first 26 races. Chase Elliott rebounded from a slow start to the 2022 campaign and clinched the regular season title a race early. However, this new car also has its flaws. Kurt Busch locked himself into a playoff position via a win at Kansas in May, however, despite the “win-and-you’re-in” format, he will miss the Playoffs. During a qualifying run at Pocono Raceway, Busch lost control of his car exiting turn three and crashed, resulting in a concussion that has kept him out of the last six races, and the upcoming Darlington playoff opener. His team, 23XI Racing nixed their playoff waiver, opening up an extra playoff spot for the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway. Austin Dillon claimed the spot by virtue of winning the wild Daytona contest, yet it cost 2017 Cup champion Martin Truex, Jr. a playoff spot.
So let’s meet the field (in no particular order). Austin Cindric* (Daytona 500 champ), Kyle Larson (defending series champ), Chase Elliott (regular season champ), Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain*, Austin Dillon, Chase Briscoe*, Daniel Suarez*, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick, and Alex Bowman.
(star indicates a first-timer in the playoffs)
Right away, we notice that several familiar faces and former Cup champions are absent from this list. The aforementioned Martin Truex, Jr., Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola, and Kurt Busch (injured) all missed out on the 2022 playoffs due to the number of different winners and the eligibility criteria. This has led to calls to change the system, but that is a topic for another day.
Let’s start with the playoff predictions pandemonium, shall we
Round One: Darlington, Kansas, Bristol
Arguably the tamest round of the playoffs, we usually see some of the “lesser drivers” from the season get bounced here. However, the challenges of Darlington and the first time using the Gen 7 cars on the concrete Bristol track may prove challenging for some of the better drivers in this year’s field.
First Four out: Cindric, Briscoe, Suarez, Bowman
Outside of their combined four wins this season, these drivers have been quietly mid-pack this season, save for a few solid runs every now and again. Cindric won the Daytona 500 in February and didn’t score another top 5 until Sonoma in June. So far this year, he’s scored 5 top 5’s, 9 top 10’s, and one win, all of which coming on superspeedways or road courses with the exception of his 7th place effort at Nashville.
Another first-timer in the playoffs, Chase Briscoe locked himself in with victory at Phoenix in March. Yet, outside of that run, he’s been rather lackluster this year with just three top 5’s and four top tens. As is with many drivers, he’s also had his occasional flashes of brilliance, notably the Bristol Dirt Race and the Coke 600. However, he hasn’t scored a top 10 since that Charlotte race, and finished in the 20’s in the spring Darlington and Kansas events. We can’t really judge anyone for Bristol, as we haven’t seen Next-Gen cars on the concrete there. The closest comparison we have is Dover, where Briscoe finished 13th.
The third first-timer on this list is Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez. Suarez broke through and won at Sonoma in front of friends, family, and his ‘Daniel’s Amigos’ fanclub. Suarez has been probably the best of these first four eliminated, having a career year. He’s set personal bests in two of the three big categories, wins (1) and top 5’s (6). His best season top-10 wise was his rookie run in 2017 when he nabbed 12. However, he already has 10 this year and about a third of the season left. Suarez is probably the most controversial pick I have in this category, but looking at the spring races at Darlington and Kansas, he finished 20th and 19th, respectively. Looking at Dover, the closest comparison to Bristol, Suarez racked up a 14th place run.
Alex Bowman was my pick to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship, but was eliminated after the second round. He’s had a rough go at it so far this year, scoring only one win (compared to four last year), three top 5’s and 10 top 10’s. This is undoubtedly his worst season since joining Hendrick full-time in 2018. His silver linings are a top-10 at Kansas earlier this season, which is race #2 in the playoffs this year, and a top-5 at Dover, which is similar to Bristol. However, he finished 29th at Darlington, and we’ve seen in the past how one off-race can derail someone’s momentum and even cost them the playoffs.
Round Two: Texas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval
When the playoffs were first introduced, this round was called “The Contender 12”. Well, seeing it’s 2022 lineup, I’m going to call this “The Chaos 12”. Two wild cards and Texas. The unpredictability of the Talladega Superspeedway pairs well with the insanity of the Roval. There is one chance to secure yourself some safety before these two races, which comes in the form of the controversial Texas Motor Speedway. Win here, and the pressures of Dega and the Roval are gone.
Next Four Out: Busch, Bell, Byron, Dillon
Kyle Busch has been one hell of a story to follow this season. When Mars Corporation (which owns M&M’s, Skittles, Snickers, and others) announced they were leaving NASCAR at the end of 2022, all eyes shifted to Kyle Busch. He heads into the playoffs without a ride for 2023, but has hinted at some offers he has. I spared him in the first round, but KFB’s luck will run dry in round two. He won the Bristol Dirt Race, which is about as chaotic as chaotic gets. The 2-time Cup champ has had what can only be described as a let-down season with 6 top-5’s and 13 top 10’s, which are the lowest they’ve been in several years. He finished third at Talladega earlier this year, but crashed out of the Texas All-Star event early. The Roval hasn’t been the kindest to Busch in the past, either, and I think that will cost him his Playoff hopes this year.
Busch’s teammate, Christopher Bell, has been on the uptick this season, already tying his career best in top 5’s and is slowly catching a top 10 record as well. Bell also broke through and snapped his drought, winning his second career race at New Hampshire in July. Bell started on pole at the spring event at Talladega earlier this year, but that means nothing when you realize how crazy superspeedways get. Bell finished 10th (out of 24) in the All-Star race at Texas, and only has one Roval top 10. In a season where winning is the name of the game, I don’t see Bell moving on.
William Byron shot out of a cannon to start the 2022 season, catching the eyes of many, myself included. I wrote an article about Byron and considered him a serious title threat for this year. Unfortunately, he has fallen like a rock. This season, he has 2 wins (a career high), but only 4 top-5’s and 5 top 10’s. He has failed to score a top-10 since Sonoma in June, and just hasn’t been as dominant as he was at the beginning of the year, leading just 42 laps since that Sonoma top-10. His two wins may be enough to point him through the first round, but one mediocre or poor run could end Byron’s hopes for the 2022 crown.
Austin Dillon has had what can only be described as an Austin Dillon season. Ride around all season, biding time, and steal a win when it counts. This time, his stolen gem came at the biggest time possible, as he avoided the massive one in the first turn at Daytona, and survived the rain to win. Dillon has stolen a win at Texas in the past, and won a Charlotte oval race (which is similar to Texas) a few years back as well. Likely the most controversial driver in the field, his win bumped former Cup champ Martin Truex, Jr. from the playoff grid. Dillon has 4 top-5’s and 8 top-10’s this season, which is about average for his standards. However, his playoff effort ends after the second round.
Round Three: Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville
NASCAR fans rejoiced upon Homestead’s return to the playoffs. For the lucky 8 that have made it this far, the pressure and ante are raised as these are the final three races to place your bid for a shot at the Cup. Las Vegas produced a solid race in March, while Martinsville was subpar. Homestead will host its Next-Gen debut in late October as the final stretch of the 2022 Cup Series begins.
Next Four Out: Blaney, Hamlin, Chastain, Harvick
Ryan Blaney has had a roller coaster year. Many picked him as a title favorite following his explosive 2021 campaign. However, he went winless throughout the regular season and made the playoffs by three points over Martin Truex, Jr. I thought about eliminating Blaney in round 2, but his past successes at each track, including a win at the Texas All-Star Race earlier this season, caused me to think better of that. Blaney enters the Playoffs with 8 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s, which is respectable enough, however, he’ll either need to be stellar throughout the playoffs or win at least once, which we know he is capable of.
Denny Hamlin has had a wild season to say the least. He started with a rough stretch, when he finished outside the top 10 in every single race until Richmond, which he broke through and won. He followed that up a few weeks later with a win at the Coke 600. He crossed the line first at Pocono, but failed post-race inspection which handed off the win to Chase Elliott. Hamlin has picked up a little bit, but has two finishes outside the top-15 heading into the playoffs. In 2022, he has 5 top-5’s and 7 top-10’s, which are rather poor for Hamlin’s standards. He’s found successes at Darlington and Texas, which may be enough to move him through the playoffs, but he doesn’t make the Championship Four.
Ross Chastain has been the epitome of controversy in 2022. Having on-track incidents in several consecutive races, notably butting heads with Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin several times this season. However, in doing this, Chastain still managed to bust out two wins for the young Trackhouse Racing team. Chastain has scored an impressive 10 top-5’s and 14 top-10’s to go with his 2 victories. Chastain hasn’t scored a top-10 since New Hampshire, however, which snapped a streak of six straight. With a season as impressive as this one for Chastain, all he needs to do is clean himself up and he could be a serious title threat going down the road.
Kevin Harvick entered 2022 riding one of the longest winless streaks of his career. He had a decent start to the year, but simply couldn’t find victory lane. As we got later in the season, Harvick was on the bottom side of the playoffs, barely hanging on to the last points position. Each new winner increased the pressure for Harvick and the #4 team, but it was all alleviated after he scored back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond, snapping his winless streak and securing himself in the Playoffs. With his 2 victories, Harvick also has 7 top-5’s and 13 top-10’s, which are down compared to recent seasons. Despite that, I think Harvick can ride his momentum wave through the first two rounds, but the 2014 Champ comes up just short of the final four.
Final Round: Phoenix
Back for a third go-round as the host track for the Championship race, Phoenix Raceway is where the season comes to a close. Three more drivers bid farewell to title hopes as one walks away with the hardware, bragging rights, and title of NASCAR Cup Series Champion. The stakes are higher than ever as the wildest season in recent memory draws to a close in Arizona. Who will be the first Champion of NASCAR’s seventh generation?
Fourth Place: Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick finally broke through for his first NASCAR Cup Series victory at Road America during the July 4th weekend. Reddick had a few races earlier in the season that simply didn’t go his way, notably the Bristol Dirt Race, when he was spun out coming to the checkered flag. Reddick became the second driver in 2022 to score their first two victories this season, joining Ross Chastain. I have Reddick advancing to the title race by virtue of winning at Homestead, where he has been historically good at. He enters the Playoff numbers with 2 wins, 8 top-5’s, and 11 top-10’s, all numbers I expect to see grow in these final 10 weeks. With his anticipated move to 23XI Racing in 2024, Tyler Reddick is shaping himself up nicely to be a title contender in the future.
Third Place: Joey Logano
The inaugural winner in the Next-Gen Joey Logano will advance to face his second title, but will fall just short. This season, the 2018 Champ has walked away with 2 wins, 7 top-5’s and 12 top-10’s. Logano’s season has been pretty average for his standards, and a trip to the Championship 4 completes that. He signed a long-term extension with Team Penske, and will likely be a title threat for years to come.
Second Place: Kyle Larson
The defending Champ got off to a hot start in 2022, winning the second race of the year in Fontana. However, he didn’t win again until Watkins Glen in August. His win total, top-5’s, and top-10’s are all down from last year, yet many consider Kyle Larson to be one of if not the best race car driver actively racing today. Pairing with Hendrick has turned him into the winning machine we see today, and he’ll find enough consistency to advance to the Championship 4 for the second consecutive year, however, this time coming up just short
2022 Champion: Chase Elliott
The last Hendrick driver to score a win in 2022, having to wait until Dover to claim his first win of the year, he has since gone on to win 4 times this season, as well as score 10 top-5’s and 17 top-10’s. He clinched the regular season championship with two races still to go and quickly shifted to a major title threat and for good reason. He’s running a season similar to his 2020 campaign but with one notable difference: this time, he is the most dominant driver, and that will pay huge dividends and score Awesome Chase his second NASCAR Cup Series title
What are your championship predictions? Let me know on Twitter! Also be sure to check out Matt and Jake’s predictions and see who gets to host the Championship Prediction article in November.
Motor Max 